This morning I got up to read in the local Record Searchlight that the housing market was on an upswing in Redding. I had just read the Wall Street Journal saying just the opposite on a national scale. You be the judge, as here is the article from WSJ.com
The housing market, whose collapse pulled the economy into recession in late 2007, is stalling again.
In major markets across the country, home sales are deteriorating, inventories of unsold homes are piling up and builders are scaling back construction plans. The expiration of a federal home-buyers tax credit at the end of April is weighing on the market.
The Wall Street Journals’ quarterly survey of 28 major metro areas shows it’s a buyer’s market in much of the country. See full graphic.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau said single-family housing starts in June fell by 0.7%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 454,000. The U.S. started 1.47 million homes in 2006, before the housing bubble popped.
Future construction looks even weaker. Permits for single-family starts fell 3% in June, following big declines in both May and April. “We’re hovering at post-World War II lows,” said Ivy Zelman, president of Zelman & Associates, a research firm.
•Economists aren’t singling out one reason for the stalling housing market. A variety of factors have led to flagging confidence, they say, including sluggish labor markets, global economic turmoil and falling stock prices.
While the housing downturn dragged the economy into a recession nearly three years ago, now it is the economy that is pulling down housing, says economist Patrick Newport at IHS Global Insight. Without sustained job growth, the housing market likely won’t improve. That in turn will ricochet across manufacturing, retail and other trades heavily dependent on home building and consumer spending.
The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas shows that inventory levels have grown in many markets. But inventory fell in some of the weakest ones, including several Florida markets, Atlanta, and Charlotte, N.C.
At the end of June, inventory was up 33% from year-ago levels in San Diego, and by 19% and 15% in Los Angeles and Orange County, Calif., respectively, according to data compiled by John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Rising inventory can lead to price declines later.
So, now you can see why I like the WSJ….they are coming at it from a national basis, and their writers get the background.
I would enjoy talking about this with you….
www.ronlargent.com ronlargent@kw.com
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